Rosie the three-legged dragon and the three days of night, part three

Carlitos Drowning in the Pool

When we last left our confused heroine and her untrustworthy brother, Carlitos had fallen into a pool they thought was a lake or a moat, and with no way out and no way for Rosie to save him herself, he was in danger of drowning, and that was just the start of her troubles. This… Continue reading Rosie the three-legged dragon and the three days of night, part three

Is Trump really desperate for a deal in Iran or is time much more on our side than widely reported?

Wooden king chess piece on a chessboard under a focused light.

Why would a man that’s supposed to be desperate beyond belief to end hostilities with any kind of deal, refuse one that was on the table, and make a reasonably big show of going back and forth about it? According to conventional wisdom, President Donald Trump is desperate to make a deal with Iran.  Like… Continue reading Is Trump really desperate for a deal in Iran or is time much more on our side than widely reported?

The strange state of the conflict in Iran and why Republicans better hope something happens soon

Three abandoned rusted tanks in muddy battlefield with destroyed buildings in the background at sunset

The war has entered a sort of slow moving stasis rather than anything resembling the frenetic pace of the first five weeks and time is running out to pivot to the midterm elections. I’ll admit it upfront:  I didn’t expect the Iran War to devolve into a non-ceasefire ceasefire for almost a full month.  While… Continue reading The strange state of the conflict in Iran and why Republicans better hope something happens soon

Iran: The experts have been wrong about almost everything

Operations room with cracked digital map of the Middle East showing countries and regions

It’s almost impossible to know where to begin with the sheer multitude of increasingly hysterical claims regarding both the day to day performance of our campaign and the broader economic and geopolitical repercussions, many of which were ridiculous from the start. As the conflict in Iran enters the third week of a shaky ceasefire with… Continue reading Iran: The experts have been wrong about almost everything

Iran: Is it all over but the crying?

Line graph showing stock index growth from January to June 2024 with 18.7% increase

While we remain at war, why do the markets seem optimistic about the future when they should be pessimistic in the face of these concerns, and is this an optimism that can last or simply a calm in the storm?  Though last weekend’s peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan failed to produce a deal between the… Continue reading Iran: Is it all over but the crying?

NATO just turned 77, but is it going down in the Strait of Hormuz?

Chessboard with France, Russia, and China flags on pieces; plaque reads FRANCE-RUSSIA-CHINA ALLIANCE.

As France joins forces with Russia and China at the United Nations, and makes a deal with Iran, supporters of the NATO alliance argue that it is a purely defensive affair. In that case, what purpose does it serve in the modern world? In one of the ironies that seem to increasingly define the modern… Continue reading NATO just turned 77, but is it going down in the Strait of Hormuz?

Reminder: The media and the experts always predict disaster when Trump is involved

U.S. Capitol building under a dark sky with a tornado, lightning, and heavy rain.

In his second term alone, there have been panicked freakouts about his plans to trim the size of government, tariffs, other taxes, military strikes, and more.  While this time might be different, I wouldn’t bet against the President. While I have no special ability to foresee the future and am well aware that past results… Continue reading Reminder: The media and the experts always predict disaster when Trump is involved

While much of the world is kicking and screaming, Trump is almost singlehandedly dragging us into the future

Trump Future

It certainly isn’t pretty at times, but beyond death and taxes, there have been two certainties throughout my life, the Middle East was a strange and scary place from which terrorists launched attacks and communism was a creeping, insidious threat. Trump is finally addressing them both. At the risk of dating myself, I was born… Continue reading While much of the world is kicking and screaming, Trump is almost singlehandedly dragging us into the future

Iran: Call it regime change, unconditional surrender, or whatever you like so long as whoever’s in charge at the end agrees to a few key things

While we do not yet know what sort of government will emerge in Iran, the President is adopting a policy much closer to the success of World War II’s unconditional surrender than the failure of the Iraq War’s regime change.  Last week, President Donald Trump demanded nothing less than unconditional surrender from Iran to end… Continue reading Iran: Call it regime change, unconditional surrender, or whatever you like so long as whoever’s in charge at the end agrees to a few key things

Trump is running the “Domino Theory” in reverse

During the Cold War, the theory held that one country falling to communism led to another, but today Trump is toppling states allied with China and Russia in an inverted incarnation. In the aftermath of World War II, the world was roughly divided into two spheres of influence.  Countries either lived under the protective umbrella… Continue reading Trump is running the “Domino Theory” in reverse