2024 might make 2020 seem like an ordinary year

2024 will be defined by a confluence of events most of which remain completely unpredictable, far more so than most years in modern memory.  Call it the quantum mechanics or Schrödinger’s cat of years, where we will not know what happens until the waveforms collapse into history.

2020 was considered an extraordinary dumpster fire of a year long before the ball dropped in Times Square on New Year’s Eve.  The emergence of a global health crisis on a scale not seen in 100 years was unpredictable, leading to radical changes to almost all of our lives that few, if any, people had ever experienced.  It is true that the first stirrings of coronavirus were reported in late 2019, but up until the original 15-days to slow the spread in March, most did not anticipate months of shutdowns, school closures, mask mandates, and more followed by the federal government’s attempts to force vaccinations on people for the first time in history.  Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld might refer to this as an “unknown unknown,” that is an occurrence which could have been predicted in advance or was near impossible to predict.  Putting this another way, no set of 2020 predictions written in December 2019 or early January included extended lockdowns, much less everything else.  Anyone that somehow had a crystal ball at the time would have been considered the equivalent of a lunatic on a street corner with an “end is near sign.”  2024, in comparison, is shaping up to be a different type of year, though it might prove no less traumatic or unpredictable.  Instead of “unknown unknowns,” America and the world at large is facing a perhaps unprecedented set of what Secretary Rumsfeld referred to as “known unknowns,” the things that you are aware of, but cannot say anything about with any surety, much less predict how events will unfold.  These known unknowns include everything from the potential imprisonment of a leading presidential candidate to whether the incumbent President of the opposing party will even be on the ballot to the outcome of the presidential race itself, meaning there is a conceivable, if not probable, scenario where a presidential victory speech is delivered from a jail cell or someone not currently running for the office will sit in the office.  Globally, the situation doesn’t get any easier to predict.  Last year saw conservative candidates secure stunning victories from Europe to South America.  Next year, some 4 billion people around the world will be voting, at least nominally, including major, highly contested elections in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Indonesia, South Africa, Portugal, Mexico, Taiwan, and India.  Even Russia is supposed to hold an election.  International relations are equally unstable with a continued war in Ukraine, a new war in Gaza, and the potential for either to spiral into much wider conflicts given both are funded by outside proxies.

Anyone who tells you they have any real idea how all of these factors and more play out, is either lying or actually has a crystal ball.  The best we might do is to consider the probability of certain outcomes, whether there is a low or high chance of an event occurring, but even that limited approach could still be fraught with error considering many of these predictions are related in knowable ways.  For example, there is a low probability that former President Trump is in jail by the end of next year.  Whatever progressive’s may wish and even whether or not the former President is ultimately convicted on some, if not all charges, it is extremely unlikely these cases will go before a jury prior to the election.  Special Counsel Jack Smith’s request for an almost unprecedented expedited decision from the Supreme Court on whether the President has immunity from some of the charges has already been rejected.  The case is not likely to go forward until this question is answered, which is not likely to occur until early 2025 if the Court follows the usual calendar.  The classified documents case also features important questions of presidential power, which will need to shuffle through the normal appellate to Supreme Court process, and could even take longer.  The Fulton, GA case is already subject to disputes about its jurisdiction and how to handle the 20 some-odd conspirators, a few of which have demanded an expedited trial, pushing back the former President’s own trial.  Anything is possible, but the old adage that justice moves slowly is likely to prevail and President Trump is likely to remain unconvicted and able to fully compete in November 2024.  Based on the current polls, this puts the odds at least even that he is able to win back the White House, but should he be convicted in the middle of the campaign, those chances would likely decline substantially if recent polling is any indication.  In other words, an unconvicted Trump has a slight advantage in 2024, but a convicted one does not.  The situation is even further complicated by two unrelated factors.  First, Democrats are attempting to bar the former President from the ballot in several states whether or not he is convicted.  Colorado and Maine have already done so.  It is widely believed that the Supreme Court will overturn these efforts, but the outcome is not certain; the Court itself can be wildly unpredictable.  In the meantime, a politician can’t win an election if voters can’t pull the lever on their behalf, meaning the former President could conceivably lose simply by being denied the right to run in enough states.  Second, some Democrats are actively suggesting that President Biden should step aside and allow another candidate to take his place in the upcoming election.  To some extent, I’ve always considered this wishful thinking, knowing that replacing a candidate in practice is very different from the principle.  Whoever might take the reins from President Biden will not simply be anointed, resulting in a potentially fractured party that could well favor former President Trump, whether or not he is convicted or anything else.  The odds are low President Biden will be replaced, but not nonexistent, resulting in potential wild cards on top of wild cards.  A low chance result in one place, will upend the odds of all subsequent matters.

The presidential race is, of course, going to be influenced by external factors and few are more unpredictable than war.  The conflict in Ukraine is approaching its third year of stalemate, and, not surprisingly, the American public has tired of funding what appears to be an unwinnable effort after the much vaunted spring counter offensive failed to secure any meaningful victories last year.  There are reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to negotiate a cease fire provided Ukraine relinquishes its claims on the disputed territories, currently occupied by Russian forces in any event, and Western Europe agrees to halt the NATO expansion underlying the entire conflict.  In a more rational world, this agreement would have been reached two years ago and it should be embraced even more so right now, but it remains entirely unclear if either Ukraine, which sees itself as the champion on democracy in Europe, or the United States, which has now experienced almost 8 years of paranoid Putin-mania, will be willing to concede anything.  The current, though murky position, of both appears to be the complete expulsion of Russia from even territories not involved in the recent conflict such as Crimea, and eventual NATO membership for Ukraine.  This could certainly change.  If it does, Europe will be at peace once more, energy and food prices might decline, and President Biden might benefit both diplomatically and economically.  If the hard line, anti-Russian position prevails, however, the conflict will continue and could become even more predictable.  It is difficult to determine the potential impact on the President’s electoral prospects, but generally speaking, wars that drag on forever and continue to drain our resources aren’t likely to improve his chances, especially if there is an unforeseen incident that broadens the conflict.  The situation in the Middle East is, if anything, far more volatile and likely to have an impact on domestic politics.  It’s no secret that key segments of the President’s base are furious with his continued support of Israel, claiming that he is implicit in supporting a genocide and potentially fracturing his coalition when he needs them most.  These voters are not likely to support a Republican under any circumstances, but should they back a third party candidate or simply choose not to participate, it is difficult to see how President Biden can prevail.  If the conflict can be brought to a conclusion early in the year, there is enough time to reconcile these disparate factions, but that seems highly unlikely given that Hamas seeks nothing short of the destruction of Israel and Israel itself seeks the destruction of Hamas.  If anything, the odds are even that the Middle East will devolve into a broader conflict with unanticipated side effects, more so than anything happening in Europe right now.  There are already reports that Iran is sending additional, more sophisticated arms to Hezbollah in the West Bank and Iranian proxies have been terrorizing US bases and shipments in the region since the war began on October 7, resulting in simmering hostilities that could prove difficult to contain for even the most adroit statesmen, which President Biden certainly is not.  What is a relatively minor to moderate electoral drag right now (though minor in the context of a close race might well be more than enough), could very well explode, literally and figuratively, with impacts that are impossible to foresee, except to say that they do not bode well for President Biden.

China also continues to loom large behind the scenes, economically and potentially militarily, should the Communist Party decide to pursue long standing claims on Taiwan, opening up yet another conflict, what would be the fourth on President Biden’s watch if anyone is counting.  An armed invasion seems unlikely, but Taiwan’s upcoming elections later this month and the growing sense that events are spiraling beyond President Biden’s ability to control them, could create the classic perfect storm scenario.  Even if they do not go so far as to invade, a more aggressive posture could push events to the brink, prompting the United States to respond, and ultimately making the situation even more unpredictable, save that any stand off between the US and China is likely to have huge repercussions and not for the better.  If the past few years have taught us anything, it should be to expect the unexpected – most of the topics that dominate our discussions today including in this post weren’t even part of the conversation just a few years ago.  It’s probable that between now and the election, some new crisis will emerge that further shuffle Teddy Roosevelt’s political kaleidoscope.  The border, for example, has long been a hot topic in conservative circles, but another record year of crossings could very well make it a more potent issue with the broader electorate, especially if rumblings from progressive mayors in major cities are any indication.  Similarly, inflation appears to be easing over the past several months, reducing the strain on the economy and prompting the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts later this year that should help drive additional growth, which would certainly be good for Americans in general and potentially President Biden in particular.  At the same time, some are already predicting a much rougher path forward if not an actual recession, which would obviously have the opposite effect.  If I had to guess, I would suggest perceptions of both the border and the economy are likely solidified by this point and will not have a dramatic impact on the election, but neither would I count either out, especially given the broader volatility.  For example, if reports are accurate that an unprecedented number of people from the terrorist watch list have crossed over the past year and one of them should succeed in carrying out an attack – an admittedly low probability – the repercussions could be disastrous.

Ultimately, we end where we began:  2024 will be defined by a confluence of events most of which remain completely unpredictable, far more so than most if not any years in modern memory.  Call it the quantum mechanics or Schrödinger’s cat of years, where we will not know what happens until the waveforms collapse into history.  There are known unknowns that we know will have an impact, but what that impact will be is entirely unclear – and this doesn’t even consider what might happen after the election, regardless of who prevails.  In other words, get ready for a wild, unprecedented, history making ride.  What’s that they say about being cursed to live in interesting times?