Whatever becomes of Medicaid, every restaurant and service worker, every cop, every firefighter, every cashier, almost every union member, everyone who has recently had a child and will have one for the next three years, the great majority of seniors, and even upper middle class people in high tax states, will receive some benefit from this bill, sometimes a substantial benefit.
After passing what even progressive commentators referred to as “the single most sweeping piece of legislation in American history” (Ed Kilgore, NY Mag Intelligencer), otherwise known as the Big Beautiful Bill last week, CNN immediately declared that the debate over the bill’s impact had begun. In their view, Democrats will continue to criticize the legislation because of the cuts to Medicaid and Food Stamps, which they believe will translate into millions of people losing health insurance if not dying or starving. “It’s 2018 all over again,” explained Democrat Representative Jared Golden of Maine, who holds one of his party’s toughest, most Trump-friendly swing seats according to CNN. “I’m not gonna predict the future but I think today was a pretty bad vote for them,” he added. “I would never vote for these Medicaid cuts. Never.” “We will look back on election night last November, on what just happened this week, culminating with this vote today, as the beginning of the House majority for Democrats,” Representative Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania noted. “There’s nothing more effective than a member of Congress saying things in their own words about how bad this bill is,” added California Representative Ami Bera who referenced comments from some Republicans and who is heavily involved in the Democrats’ campaign operation. Democrats were, in fact, already running ads against the bill in battleground states, spending $35 million in advertisements in June alone. Save My Care, Protect Our Jobs, Unrig the Economy, and other Democrat affiliated outside groups are planning additional ads throughout the rest of the year, targeting about a dozen key House members. “After this vote, every time you wait longer at a doctor’s office or get a higher utility bill in the mail, it’s gonna have a ‘brought to you by MAGA’ disclaimer to go along with it,” explained Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist who has worked on House races. “While Americans are celebrating our country with family, friends, and fireworks, Republicans in Congress just passed the largest cut to Medicaid in history,” an ad from Unrig our Economy stated. To be sure, the Medicare cuts they are railing against are real, amounting to some trillion dollars over ten years, primarily by enforcing a ban on illegal aliens and tightening work requirements. Many in the left-leaning expert class along with the supposedly non-partisan Congressional Budget Office have claimed the cuts will result in millions of people losing their insurance coverage (between 12 and 17 million based on the study) and potentially hundreds of rural hospitals closing (some 300 hundred according to an analysis by the Cecil G. Sheps Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill). Some have translated this into tens of thousands of people dying.
As proof focusing on these items might be a winning approach, CNN noted that some Republicans were in agreement and polls have shown potentially broad dissatisfaction with the bill in general. For example, retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis said the cuts to Medicaid were “inescapable,” while Senator Josh Hawley said they were a “mistake.” Similarly, Quinnipiac University found that 53 percent of voters opposed the bill as recently as June. Perhaps needless to say, the majority of Republicans, almost all of whom voted for the bill, disagree and are prepared to actively defend the legislation. President Donald Trump used the official White House website to release what he believes will resonate with voters and which represents a good portion of the Republican argument moving forward. “Today, President Donald J. Trump officially signed The One Big Beautiful Bill into law — a once-in-a-generation piece of legislation that makes good on his campaign promises and puts America First.” They went on to tout the “largest tax cut in history for middle- and working-class Americans,” promising that those making less than $50,000 per year will benefit and that some could see “$10,000+ more in annual take-home pay for families.” This includes “NO tax on Tips” up to $25,000, “NO tax on Overtime” up to $12,500, and “NO tax on Social Security” provided by an additional $6,000 deduction for seniors. In addition, the child tax credit has been permanently increased for “more than 40 million families,” the SALT deduction has been expanded to $40,000 per year, a new Trump Account has been created to provide newborns with $1,000 that can be supplemented by their parents, and a new car loan interest tax deduction for American made automobiles. Outside of taxes, the President also highlights a $12.5 billion investment to modernize the air traffic control system, expansion of domestic oil and gas production, increases in border security, investments in the military, and the new Golden Dome missile defense system. As White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt described it, “President Trump’s One Big, Beautiful Bill delivers on the commonsense agenda that nearly 80 million Americans voted for – the largest middle-class tax cut in history, permanent border security, massive military funding, and restoring fiscal sanity. The pro-growth policies within this historic legislation are going to fuel an economic boom like we’ve never seen before.” Speaker of the House Mike Johnson similarly claimed it was the “most comprehensive, complicated piece of legislation” in recent memory, and “arguably in the top two or three in the history of the Congress.” Even CNN itself noted, “This could not be a bigger deal for President Trump and his administration because they believe this bill really encapsulates everything President Trump wants to do with his agenda.”
Of course, the question is: Who’s wrong and who’s right? What will voters care about more in 2026 and beyond, the cuts to Medicaid or the additional money in their pockets? At the risk of engaging in rampant speculation and despite the conventional wisdom in the mainstream media, I find it incredibly hard to believe it will be the former for several reasons. First, government forecasts have always been notoriously unreliable and the actual number of people losing their insurance is likely to be significantly lower than reported. Second, the great majority of those will be able to secure their own insurance on the Obamacare exchanges or through their employer. Third, even if the CBO is correct and the number is 12 million, it’s still too small a constituency to drive an election, any impact is likely to be at the margins, and past reforms that have tightened work requirements have generally proven popular. Fourth and most importantly, this might be the first time in the history of politics that an entire party universally opposed significant tax cuts for key voting blocks. Whatever becomes of Medicaid, the reality is that every restaurant and service worker in the country, every cop, every firefighter, every cashier, almost every union member, everyone who has recently had a child and will have one for the next three years, the great majority of seniors, and even upper middle class people like myself in high tax states, will receive some benefit from this bill, sometimes a substantial benefit. Being able to deduct an additional $25,000 in tip income from your taxes or $12.500 in overtime is no small matter. We’re talking about thousands of dollars these workers will get to keep and because Democrat opposition was so strong, they will know they are only keeping it because of President Trump and the Republicans. Conceivably, if Democrats had proposed their own bill that contained these or similar provisions, they might have been able to claim they supported some of the goals and would protect some of these benefits if they retook Congress, but they couldn’t in good conscience support the Medicaid cuts and border provisions. They didn’t do that, however, and now they’re going to have to explain to their constituents why they voted for them to have a smaller paycheck. Personally, I find these measures gimmicky in terms of pure economic theory. If it were up to me, there’d be a small flat tax that does away with all of this complexity coupled with sales and excise taxes to make up the difference. Politically, however, it might well be pure gold. Normally, discussions of tax rates and take home pay happen at a level that’s hard to keep track of because of the various types of taxes, income, payroll, etc. and the fact that income is taxed in different brackets, making it difficult to say for certain, in real time, what a rate cut does to your income. Rarely, however, does a politician have an opportunity to point to a tax benefit that applies so directly to so many people in so many different walks of life. Republicans, if they have half a brain, will be certain to point this out repeatedly. How many of you make money from tips? How much more money do you have in your pay check now thanks to me and President Trump? My opponent voted for the government to keep that money and he would do so again. Are you prepared to give it back? While it has been said before, it bears repeating: To a large extent, President Trump’s electoral success has been based on blue collar workers, either disaffected Democrats or disillusioned in general. The Big Beautiful Bill is targeted at them with the goal to build a durable coalition. In my opinion at least, Democrats have ignored this reality at their peril.
Confessions of a Conservative Atheist 