Impeachment: The political bombshell that wasn’t

Once upon a time, this would have been huge news, especially one backed by multiple pieces of evidence and the clear knowledge the President did, in fact, lie many times, but in today’s highly polarized age, no one, and I mean no one, seems to care. 

During the second impeachment of former President Donald Trump, I described the brave new political world we were entering as the “The Era of the Asterisk Impeachment,” opining that “we’ve turned impeachment into the definition of a show trial, an exercise purely in political theater.  The process is based entirely on the needs of the moment:  If you’re gonna make a hit, you gotta make it fit.  The ending is already known in advance, and irrelevant to most of the players involved.  The content itself is scripted and the evidence heavily edited.  The precise meaning of the charges or how they will be judged is entirely unimportant.  Ultimately, all that’s left is the grandstanding as legality is no defense.  Does anyone truly believe this is how any of this was supposed to work?  I doubt it.  Likewise, does anyone honestly think anything good can come of treating grave matters with such cavalier means? I notice none of the experts are trying to answer that question.”  Close to three years later, another President from another party occupies the White House and power in the House of Representatives has been likewise reversed.  Therefore, it came as no surprise when current Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy announced an impeachment inquiry of his own into current President Joseph Biden earlier this week.  “House Republicans have uncovered serious and credible allegations into President Biden’s conduct. Taken together, these allegations paint a picture of a culture of corruption,” he said.  “Through our investigations, we have found that President Biden did lie to the American people about his own knowledge of his family’s foreign business dealings…Eyewitnesses have testified that the president joined on multiple phone calls and had multiple interactions. Dinners resulted in cars and millions of dollars into his sons and his son’s business partners.”  Once upon a time, an announcement like this would have been huge news, especially one backed by multiple pieces of evidence and the clear knowledge the President did, in fact, lie many times about the issue, a bombshell shattering the political landscape, but in today’s highly polarized age, no one, and I mean no one, seems to care on either side of the political aisle.  The outcome – the President remaining in office – is preordained, the talking points of both opponents and defenders already written, and the only thing of any importance is whether a tiny sliver of the population ultimately changes their vote next year, perhaps by energizing Democrats to defend their party leader, mobilizing conservatives, or – shudder to think it – moving a few independents in either direction.

This does not mean that impeachment is without meaning entirely.  Speaker McCarthy described it as the “next logical step” and here, he was referring to the courts generally granting broader subpoena powers to support the investigation.  The thinking is:  Representative James Comer has been able to establish that some $20 million flowed into 30-odd shell companies, only to be distributed to at least nine members of the President’s family.  To find out precisely where this money went, Congress needs the powers imparted by impeachment.  Republicans would also point to additional evidence including multiple whistleblowers who’ve alleged that the Department of Justice protected President Biden and his son, Hunter, throughout the five year investigation into the family’s business dealing, a confidential source has alleged that the President and his son received $5 million each from Burisma to ensure the Prosecutor General of Ukraine was fired, and the implosion of a  longstanding story that then Vice President Biden was merely carrying out a policy favored by both the US and Europe by forcing Ukraine to fire the prosecutor, when it was recently revealed that the abrupt change in policy was, in fact, initiated by the Vice President himself and the Vice President had also been reviewing and approving talking points around it provided by Burisma.  These facts are not in dispute, though no one is sure if the confidential source alleging the bribe is accurate or if the whistleblowers are mistaken, all of them could conceivably be lying for whatever reason.  As I have suggested, when there is the smoke of a political scandal, there is likely the real fire of corruption, but the question from a political perspective is always what should be done about it and what is the best path forward to achieve your political goals.  No one seriously believes the Department of Justice under Merrick Garland is truly investigating these issues even after appointing Andrew Weiss Special Counsel last month.  Everyone knows any investigation he undertakes will be limited to Hunter Biden and will not touch the President’s connection to those finances, even though Hunter has alleged his father takes half his salary and emails document how Biden family companies paid the President’s bills.

This leaves it up to Republicans to tackle the issue, but impeachment – as everyone should be aware – is a political, not a legal process, and in that sense, it is entirely doomed to failure given there is no conceivable way – even should a photo emerge of the President actually taking a bribe – the Senate will vote to remove him from office.  The question everyone should be asking themselves in this event is simple:  Do Republicans have better means at their disposal to force the issue?  I’ve answered that with a definitive yes, and recommended against impeachment myself, believing the rewards do not outweigh the obvious risks.

There is also the sense that the “next logical step” is a reference to the political situation, rather than any actual legal culpability for President Biden, meaning this is another asterisk impeachment whose sole purpose is appeasing the more aggressive wing of the party.  For example, CNN’s Stephen Collinson described it as the “most predictable impeachment investigation in American history.”  Setting aside the lack of self-awareness and irony considering Democrats began planning former President Trump’s impeachment before he even took office, there remains some truth to this.  “The initiation of an impeachment investigation against a president ought to be an earthshaking moment in the nation’s history,” he began. “Yet when Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy announced the opening of such a probe into President Joe Biden Tuesday, it felt like more of an inevitable consequence of America’s diseased politics than a constitutional thunderclap…Impeachment did seem to be a logical next step – but less from an evidentiary perspective than a political one, with the effort pushed by hardline Republicans, including many members who voted not to certify Biden’s 2020 victory. The House GOP majority, which has remained in thrall to Trump, now serves as an arm of his bid to win back the White House next year.”   Mr. Collinson proceeded to correctly identify the risks associated with the new inquiry, claiming “the coming impeachment investigation represents a gamble for Republicans since it could cause a backlash in moderate districts that their majority depends on. And heading into 2024, when polls show limited enthusiasm for Joe Biden’s reelection bid even amid in his own party, an impeachment inquiry into the president may help the White House boost excitement among Democrats.”  Perhaps needless to say, Mr. Collinson, who I have called a chief propagandist for the Biden Administration, concluded emphatically that there is “no evidence of presidential wrongdoing,” merely “suspicions of influence peddling by his son,” as if there was any question whose influence Hunter might be peddling.  He wasn’t getting paid millions to set up meetings with me, I assure you.  To his credit, Mr. Collinson did acknowledge the clear conflict of interest even if the President’s actions weren’t technically criminal.  “Information made public by GOP-led House committees suggests at the very least a strong perception of a conflict of interest on the part of Hunter Biden in various ventures, including in China and Ukraine, while his father was dealing with those foreign policy portfolios as vice president.”  From there, he makes an unfortunate leap – though one Republicans are undertaking themselves – saying “the GOP House committees have failed to produce evidence that the president personally benefited from his son’s business deals or that he abused his power in a way that would fit the constitutional standard for impeachment of treason, bribery and high crimes and misdemeanors.”

We can certainly criticize Mr. Collinson and other progressives in the mainstream media for failing to adhere to this standard when President Trump was the one being impeached. We can also take issue with this new standard of personally benefiting even as his entire family did, but it doesn’t change the reality that the Republicans have chosen an incredibly challenging path.  Impeachment is the ultimate political genie that cannot be put back in the bottle.  Now that the inquiry has begun, articles must be filed, and the President must be impeached by the House.  If House Republicans falter at any step and cannot move this forward all the way to a trial in the Senate, it will be seen – with some righteousness – as a vindication of the President.  Impeachment, debased as it may be in modern times, is not something you can flirt with and fail to deliver.  This has to end with President Biden’s acquittal in the Senate, leaving impeachment as a political stalemate at best.  Republicans, no doubt, are buoyed by recent polling that suggests the American people are concerned about the President’s behavior in these matters.  CNN itself found that a full 61% believe the President had “had at least some involvement in his son’s business career.”  A YouGov poll earlier this month found that about half the country thinks the President is corrupt, including 13% of President Biden’s own voters in 2020.  These polls should be encouraging news for Republicans heading into an election year, but there is the inescapable old adage of Napoleon’s to consider, “Never interrupt an enemy when he is making a mistake.”  The same CNN poll had Donald Trump leading the President, 47 to 46 in a potential rematch.  It was the first poll the news organization had ever conducted that found former President Trump on top, prompting something of a freakout in the mainstream media.  Mr. Collinson himself noted last week, “the devastating verdict voters deliver on President Joe Biden in a new CNN poll is especially stark ahead of the most unprecedented election in modern times. Fourteen months before his fate is decided, Biden’s unpopularity may be brewing the only possible conditions in which a disgraced and anti-democratic ex-president, who might be a convicted felon by Election Day, would be able to squeeze back into power.”  Paul Waldman, writing for MSNBC, urged Democrats, “Don’t Panic When You See New Trump-Biden Poll Numbers,” clearly indicating that panic was necessary.

Less than a week later, Republicans have completely reshuffled the political deck, or to use Teddy Roosevelt’s phrasing, shook the political kaleidoscope into a new, as of yet unclear pattern, and there will be no going back.  This doesn’t mean the President will prevail, but should impeachment fail and the President position himself as the unfair target of political attacks, there will be many who wonder why Republicans simply didn’t let President Biden’s self-induced slide continue.  Pressuring him, yes, investigating him, doubly so, and keeping corruption front and center, but refusing to go nuclear with impeachment, for nuclear this is, even if no one seems to care.