Partisans can and will spin any argument they want, but the question is which ones the people in the middle actually respond to and the Republicans currently lead Democrats on the vast majority of issues.
While it has long been said conservatives and progressives live in two different worlds, the real question is which reality has more overlap with the real one the middle inhabits on a daily basis. Partisans – and for better or worse, I count myself one – are always going to partisan. To hear us tell it, one side is almost always right and the other is almost always wrong, unless the sides are reversed, at which point right and wrong almost immediately are as well. While I try to be as honest as I can in my writings because partisanship doesn’t require one to refrain from any and all criticism of your own side, or to avoid expressing concern when it is warranted, it’s no secret that the odds of me voting for a Democrat, any Democrat are essentially zero unless the parties should magically reverse somehow like right and wrong itself. You might well call me biased, prejudiced, immune to evidence, whatever, but we’ve been doing this in America at least since Thomas Jefferson and therefore, I consider myself in good company and am more than comfortable with the label and any resultant criticism. Those who are generally non-political, however, tend to see things somewhat differently, not necessarily more objective and yet more authentic in the sense that they absorb the various partisan arguments bandied about with abandon, reflect upon them based on their own values and experience in the world, and then make judgements as to who is right and who is wrong. Further, these judgments can easily include elements from both sides, melding the two competing factions and arguments together in ways that those committed to one ideology or another simply don’t, or at least don’t do frequently. In that sense, elections can be said to measure which vision most closely matches the reality the average person is living at that point in time, making polls, reliable ones at least, snapshots of that reality between cycles. Putting this another way, partisans can and will spin any argument they want. The question is which ones the people in the middle actually respond to.
To hear Democrats tell it, the United States has spiralled into unprecedented chaos and authoritarian rule since President Donald Trump retook the oath of office on January 20. From what I can tell, there is not a single thing he has done either domestically or internationally that has not been an unprecedented, potentially illegal disaster, causing both fiscal calamity and death and destruction around the world. In their mind, President Trump is something like King Midas in reverse, where everything he touches turns to shit instead of gold. Name a subject, any subject and he’s ruining it – frequently on purpose. Following passage of the Big Beautiful Bill on the Fourth of July, Senator Brian Schatz claimed, “Donald Trump is ruining the economy on purpose. Starting tomorrow, we’ll be paying more for everything – groceries, food, cars, homes, toys, electronics, everything that you buy. This is about the ability for people to pay for college. This is about the ability for people to retire with dignity and comfort. Trillions of dollars of wealth are being demolished. These are everyday people panicked about how much more expensive their next trip to Walmart or Costco will be, or when they’ll lose their job.” On healthcare, Senator Minority Leader Chuck Schumer referenced the same bill, “For many, the ‘Big, Ugly Betrayal’ is quite literally a matter of life and death. Too many will now have to make the heartbreaking decision between financial ruin and going without care.” On immigration and crime, Representative Delia Ramirez claimed, “what you are seeing is the beginning of fascism, point blank. He is sending the military to the cities that would dare to have dissent and resistance to what you are seeing — mass deportations, the robbing of mothers from their children.” For his part, California Governor Gavin “Cobra Kai” Newsom, insisted these policies will lead to the cancellation of elections as well, “I fear that we will not have an election in 2028. I really mean that in the core of my soul − unless we wake up to the code red, what’s happening in this country, and we wake up soberly to how serious this moment is.” On foreign policy, Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee claimed, “President Trump’s early statements and actions are threatening the national security of our country. Since taking office a little more than a month ago, the president has alienated nearly every international partner and ally we have, leaving us isolated in an increasingly dangerous world as Russia, North Korea, Iran, and China work together. We need partners and allies to effectively address the multitude of national security threats we face—or could face. Yet, Trump has shown more alignment with Vladimir Putin, who threatens the international rules-based order, than with our long-standing partners and allies.” The Prospect helpfully combined all these threads into a single statement that says it all, “Trump promised to make America great. Instead, he may bring about its destruction. Donald Trump and his cronies are smashing up democratic norms, government institutions and the postwar international order. There are no signs yet that anyone will stop them.”
Of course, there are many more examples with even more produced on an hourly basis, a steady stream of claims that President Trump is destroying the country, transforming it into his own fascist fantasy land, but are voters buying it? Do they believe things are as bad as progressives claim and that the President and his Republican enablers are chiefly responsible if not doing it all on purpose? At least at this point, the answer appears to be a reasonably resounding no. Despite repeated claims that Americans have completely soured on the President and his approval rating is collapsing, the Real Clear Politics average as of Saturday finds him at 45.3%, not exactly a stellar number yet still 1.1% above President Barack Obama and 1.9% above President George W. Bush at this point in their second terms, and no one in the media ever referred to President Obama in particular as being broadly unpopular. Moreover, the average is comparable to where the President sat in late April and early May at the height of the panic over tariffs and the resultant, completely unnecessary market sell off. Though it reached a peak of 47.8% on May 28, the average has remained between 45.2% as a low and 46.3% as a high since July 13. Sadly, this has not prevented even supposedly reputable news organizations from acting as though President Trump remains in continuous freefall, albeit perhaps the slowest one in history. “Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Falls Again in Poll” was how Newsweek recently described a two point drop that is within the margin of error and still has him at 45%. As they saw the minor deviation, “It is one of many polls that have seen the president’s approval rating drop in recent days…Newsweek’s tracker currently shows that the president’s net approval rating sits at -10 points, with 44 percent approving and 54 percent disapproving. That is down from -9 points last week and -8 points the week before.” Presumably, one of these polls is Reuters which headlined their recent finding “Trump’s approval dips as Americans worry about economy,” but what was the dip? One percent, as in a single, solitary percent, mere statistical noise. This prompted conservative writer and Editor in Chief of HotAir.com to quip, correctly, “So the big news in this poll is…Trump’s approval rating dropped by a single point from their last tracking cycle. The margin of error in this survey of 1,109 adults is ±3%, by the way. This means that there is no meaningful difference between the two polls, nor between either of these and the preceding poll in late August, where Trump’s approval rating was 40%. It was 40% in their iteration prior to that in early August too, and the late July result as well. Going back over the entire year, the Reuters/Ipsos poll has consistently put Trump’s approval rating between 40% and 46%, which fits exactly into that ±3% margin of error.”
Below the fold, Reuters seemed to have intentionally hidden the real findings: Republicans lead Democrats on the vast majority of issues important to voters and in some cases by wide margins even on issues where they have frequently fared poorly in the past. On crime, Republicans lead 40% to 20%, on immigration 40% to 22%, on foreign conflicts, 35% to 23%, on the economy 34% to 24%, on corruption 27% to 31%, on political extremism 30% to 26%, and even on gun control of all things, 32% to 28%. The Democrats meanwhile lead on only respect for democracy, 41% to 29%, healthcare, 34% to 25%, women’s rights, 38% to 25%, and the environment 37% to 23%. A Harvard-Harris CAPS poll last month had similar findings, while capturing the relative importance on the issues, the economy first, immigration second, healthcare third, crime fourth, corruption fifth, environment ninth, gun control tenth, women’s rights eleventh, and foreign policy seventeenth. Based on these findings, Republicans currently lead on four of the top five and eight of the top ten issues. These numbers are simply not possible if the American people were buying what the Democrats were selling and while the midterm elections are more than a year away, they do not make for anything resembling a strong Democrat case to take over the House of Representatives. As Mr. Morrisey put it describing what he called the “Wages of Extremism,” “After the violence of the last couple of weeks, Democrats should expect these deficits to get worse rather than better. Almost no one among Democrats, save for John Fetterman, sees the cliff ahead. They will go over its edge soon enough on this trajectory, and they will take their midterm prospects along with them. They are either too radical or too foolish to recognize the danger, and at this point, there’s not much difference between the two.”
I would add another underlying point: Fundamentally, outrage is not a long term political strategy. First, there is a law of diminishing returns when one hyperventilates over anything and everything, the classic boy who cried wolf. Second, voters want more than anger and fear. They want solutions, a vision, a message that acknowledges their concerns and demonstrates how politicians will address them differently than the current ruling party. Third, people can sense when an entire political movement is desperate for failure, any failure, literally banking their future on the idea that some calamity will befall us that they can blame on President Trump and his Republican supporters. While the future is impossible to predict, the calamity they seek will be postponed if current trends are any indication. In addition to a stock market that has returned to record highs despite claims it was intentionally destroyed, second quarter GDP has been revised upward to a healthy 3.8%, the highest since the recovery from the pandemic, consumer spending remains higher than expected, interest rates were cut, and inflation, while still a little high, isn’t spiking as they promised. As CNBC summarized the recent inflation report, “The report further indicates that President Donald Trump’s tariffs have had only a limited pass-through effect on consumer prices. Though many economists expected Trump’s expansive levies to juice prices, companies have relied on a mixture of pre-tariff inventory accumulations and cost-absorbing measures to limit the impact.” (I wonder who could have guessed that?) Less politely, the experts were completely wrong and it seems likely Democrats are just as wrong about the mood of the country, hoping and praying for bad news even as good news comes in and that’s never a good look: The last thing a politician wants people to think is that good for you is bad for them, but that’s exactly where Democrats are today – and they probably know it.
Confessions of a Conservative Atheist 