Last year, Democrats put the country through the longest shutdown in history and have precisely nothing to show for it. The situation is even worse for them right now, but Trump Derangement and the constant belief that this time things will be different, is a sad yet powerful thing.
Though the ink is barely dry on President Donald Trump’s signature to keep the government open rather than endure a second shutdown in barely as many months, the next funding battle has already begun. The first round of appropriations bills completed on Tuesday evening doesn’t include funding beyond February 13th for several critical government agencies including the Department of Homeland Security, of which the much maligned Immigrations and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol are a part, the Transportation Safety Administration, the Federal Emergency Management Association, and the Coast Guard. In the meantime, Democrats have convinced themselves that the less than two week window is exactly what they need to extract major concessions from Republicans, and via Republicans, President Trump, on immigration enforcement. According to The Hill, which covered the coming debate in a reasonably non-hyperbolic manner, “now the real funding battle is about to begin. The debate over DHS is what originally led Congress to allow the government to partially shutter at the end of last week. The deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti at the hands of federal immigration agents in Minneapolis last month sparked new scrutiny of federal tactics. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) laid out Senate Democrats’ demands for changes to DHS policy — ending roving immigration patrols and tightening rules around the use of warrants by immigration officers; establishing a universal code of conduct governing federal law enforcement officers’ use of force; prohibiting federal officers from wearing masks; and requiring them to wear body cameras and proper identification.” (The full set of demands was provided in a formal letter yesterday in even more dramatic, progressive-friendly language.) At the same time, they acknowledged that “some progressive Democrats in the House want to go further, including a requirement that the administration pull back its ICE operations throughout the country.” The notoriously anti-Trump The Bulwark, however, put the stakes a lot more dramatically, perhaps not surprisingly for an outlet that equated Minneapolis with Gettysburg, completely convinced that this is the opportunity they have been waiting more than a year for since President Trump retook office. After declaring that “it’s time to play hardball,” Andrew Egger claimed, “Democrats do have an advantage they never had,” citing some unspecified “widespread squeamishness among elected Republicans about the way DHS is conducting its business.” Therefore though not fully truthfully, “Democrats will now get the fight they should want: a hardball negotiation over DHS funding alone.”
As a result, Mr. Eggers recapped Senator Schumer’s demands, claiming they are “not insignificant,” and then added one more, a “pile of money for immigration judges” to replace the current administrative warrant system which has been in use since 2003 wit fully judicial one. He concluded by assuring everyone, “This is not like the last shutdown fight. Democrats aren’t just trying to raise public awareness of this issue, or cultivate some goodwill among their base by demonstrating their willingness to fight, or move the Overton window closer to their ideal ICE legislation for some indeterminate point in the future. ICE is terrorizing America’s streets right now. Democrats have the ability and the leverage to play hardball for some of these reforms right now. A win is right there for the taking—if they don’t decide to call it a loss.” While one assumes the shutdown fight he referred to was last year’s “Schumer Shutdown” over healthcare subsidies, more on that in a moment, it’s hard to say given that there was a brief shutdown fight as recently as last week, though it seems most entirely missed it, perhaps even some in the Democrat Party who attempted to initiate it. In those heady days, Axios reported on January 26, “The odds of a partial government shutdown are dramatically increasing after another U.S. citizen was killed by federal agents on Saturday in Minneapolis.” Prior to the death of Alex Pretti, “The Senate was planning on an up-or-down vote next week on a six-bill package to avoid a shutdown on Jan. 31. But Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on Saturday that Democrats would block the funding bill if DHS funding is included.” “Democrats sought common sense reforms in the Department of Homeland Security spending bill, but because of Republicans’ refusal to stand up to President Trump, the DHS bill is woefully inadequate to rein in the abuses of ICE. I will vote no,” the Senator said in a statement. Two days later, The Hill was still insisting that “Democrats lay out immigration enforcement demands to avert shutdown.” “Under President Trump, Secretary Noem and Stephen Miller, ICE has been unleashed without guardrails. They violate constitutional rights all the time and deliberately refuse to coordinate with state and local law enforcement,” Senator Schumer said at a press conference, completely upending the reality that is state and local governments that are trying to nullify federal law and power. “This is not border security, this is not law and order, this is chaos — created at the top and felt in so many of our neighborhoods,” Schumer said. “After talking with my caucus, Senate Democrats are united on a set of common-sense and necessary policy goals that we need to rein in ICE and the violence,” the Democrat leader announced.
Even after the Senators agreed to separate the DHS, TSA, FEMA, and other funding, Democrats in the House led by Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, insisted they were still voting no. On Sunday, Axios said it was actually “hell no,” claiming “House Democrats splintered on a private call Sunday over whether to vote for legislation that would keep the Department of Homeland Security funded for two more weeks” with “Several lawmakers expressed firm opposition to voting for the funding measure, saying they are a ‘hell no.’” Further, “On the call, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) recounted to members how he told Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Saturday not to rely on Democratic votes to pass the bill, sources said…Jeffries said on the call that Democrats will keep with their standard practice of not helping Republicans with those procedural hurdles in the House Rules Committee or on the House floor.” Ultimately, the bill was passed within a day backed by 21 Democrat votes, but this should not be surprising for two reasons. First, the Democrats lost the last shutdown fight, that is the one which ran for more than a full month between September and October last year, but despite closing the government for the longest period in history, they completely failed to achieve their goal of continuing (temporary) healthcare subsidies. This wasn’t for lack of trying. While the government was shut down, they studiously insisted they would not negotiate until the subsidies were extended as is with no changes. None other than Senator Schumer himself was asked by Senator Bernie Moreno if there were any reforms they had in mind and requested they be put in writing. “We can’t give you a counter in writing, but it’s very simple. Because we have two sentences we would add to any proposal which would extend the ACA benefits for one year.” “Once we pass the one-year fixed so people right now aren’t in difficulty, we would sit and negotiate that,” he added. “The leader has said that he won’t negotiate before. We’re willing to negotiate once the credits are extended, plain and simple.” At the time, Democrats wouldn’t even entertain any form of means testing to prevent people making potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars from gaming the system. Senator Moreno followed up by asking if they would ensure subsidies go to the low income people who really need them to purchase health insurance because the current plan had almost no income caps in some states. For his part, Senator Schumer refused to respond, mumbled something about billionaires, yielded the floor, and walked away.
As of today, the healthcare subsidies have officially expired and the Democrat attempts to leverage a shutdown into a solution to a problem they created and extended when they were in power have objectively failed in every way possible. They put the country through almost two months of a shutdown and have precisely nothing to show for it and, notwithstanding the protests of Mr. Eggers and others, the situation is even worse right now, at least partially because Mr. Eggers himself didn’t tell the truth earlier. Contrary to his claim that this is all about DHS, it is not only immigration enforcement funding at risk – and even if that was the case, billions from the Big Beautiful Bill can be repurposed to keep it running for a time – but other, far more necessary and some would say popular programs. The TSA is required for smooth air travel. FEMA for disaster response in one of the coldest winters in a generation. The Coast Guard provides vital rescue and security services. All of these would shut down at least partially as well, to the detriment of potentially millions of Americans and ironically, because of the Big Beautiful Bill, ICE and the Border Patrol would continue to operate, producing the exact opposite outcome the Democrats and their progressive allies desire. You don’t have to take my word for it, however. Zachary Shermele, writing for USA Today, described the situation this way. After noting that Democrats might have had some leverage last week, “The political atmosphere stands out as a marked departure from the Washington of the past year in which Democrats have held little leverage over a Republican-controlled Congress and White House. But widespread backlash to the fatal shootings last month of two Minnesotans by federal agents during an immigration enforcement surge in Minneapolis enraged the Democrats’ base, angered the gun lobby and prompted unusually harsh criticism of the Trump administration from congressional Republicans. Those dynamics gave Democrats a rare upper hand, even though they chanced another prolonged shutdown to play it,” he continued to explain that as of today, “With the spending impasse behind them, lawmakers now have just 10 days to figure out a path forward or risk a funding lapse for just the Department of Homeland Security. That scenario would put Democrats in an awkward position, because ICE would continue operating while other important government functions that Americans rely on, including the Transportation Security Administration and the Coast Guard, experience lapsed paychecks for their staff and other disruptions.”
This is the untenable reality, despite that some Democrats such as Cory “Spartacus” Booker are still protesting, demanding there be “radical change.” While there might be some mild concessions from Republicans as a classic fig leaf towards compromise, it seems far more likely than not that it will be business as usual at ICE and the Border Patrol for the foreseeable future, as it should be considering how Americans voted in 2024, and progressives have managed to set themselves up for yet another massive disappointment. At this point, one would think they’d wake up to the reality that their power is next to non-existent until at least the midterms, but Trump Derangement and the constant belief that this time things will be different, is a sad yet powerful thing.
Confessions of a Conservative Atheist 